Yearly Archives: 2013

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Tornado Threat Forecast: Oct 3-4, 2013

I’m back with a forecast finally! It has been awhile since we have seen a storm with good enough potential for an update. Thursday Eastern Nebraska, Iowa — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal Pros: Good directional shear, moderate instability, left-exit region of approaching jet streak.

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Update on Tornado Threat Forecasts

The pattern looks pretty quiet for the next week, so I’m going to go back to what we did last year and just do special updates when the more notable disturbances show up. As you can see on this inflation-adjusted graph, the tornado count has


Tornado Threat Forecast: July 2-8, 2013

The “I’m sick and spent most of yesterday sleeping” edition. 1-3 DAY Tuesday Ohio Valley — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal Pros: Decent/good directional shear, upper-level forcing, good low-level lapse rates Cons: Low instability, weak low-level speed shear, weak mid-level lapse rates Mid-Atlantic, eastern