A major “second season” tornado outbreak struck parts of the Midwest, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Sunday.
A strong disturbance will work into the Midwest today into tomorrow, with the threat of a tornado outbreak looming on Sunday. As is typical with these cold season threats, this system has a high shear/low CAPE environment with conditional risks to both sides. Regardless of the risks, tomorrow’s setup looks prime for widespread severe winds [...]
I’m back with a forecast finally! It has been awhile since we have seen a storm with good enough potential for an update. Thursday Eastern Nebraska, Iowa — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal Pros: Good directional shear, moderate instability, left-exit region of approaching jet streak. Cons: Storm initiation/coverage is questionable with somewhat-capped atmosphere, no notable [...]
The United States is the world leader in tornado production by a long shot, but to better understand our own tornado risk, we must also know what goes on elsewhere.
The pattern looks pretty quiet for the next week, so I’m going to go back to what we did last year and just do special updates when the more notable disturbances show up. As you can see on this inflation-adjusted graph, the tornado count has really flat-lined recently in this already quiet season: Needless to [...]
Fireworks not exciting enough for the Fourth? Tornadoes are a somewhat regular feature of Independence Day as well.
The “I’m sick and spent most of yesterday sleeping” edition. 1-3 DAY Tuesday Ohio Valley — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal Pros: Decent/good directional shear, upper-level forcing, good low-level lapse rates Cons: Low instability, weak low-level speed shear, weak mid-level lapse rates Mid-Atlantic, eastern Carolinas — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal Pros: Moderate instability, [...]
This year’s chasecation lining up with the most active time of year plus a lengthy spell of catching up at home afterwards left a lot of activity not discussed here. Take a quick look back through maps by week.