Ayyy how you been? Your favorite(/only) 7-day tornado forecast is back! While the short-term looks to be on the quiet side, the pattern for next week is starting to look interesting.
1-3 Day
Thursday
No tornadoes expected.
Friday
No tornadoes expected.
Saturday – Central High Plains
TORNADO RANGE: 0-1 — CONFIDENCE: High
Expected Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good directional shear, decent speed shear, low-to-moderate instability initially, some upper-level dynamic support.
Cons: High LCLs, low moisture at the surface, questionable storm coverage/placement, low instability after sunset.
4-7 Day
Sunday – East-central Plains, western Midwest
TORNADO RANGE: 2-7 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Decent/good directional shear, good speed shear, low-to-moderate instability, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low-level moisture could be questionable, some potential for backing winds in the upper-levels.
Monday
No tornadoes expected.
Tuesday – Southern and central Plains
TORNADO RANGE: 8-20 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hot-spot: Southern Kansas, Oklahoma
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good/excellent directional shear, good speed shear, great upper-level lapse rates, upside risk if the system ends up closer to the GFS solutions.
Cons: Upper-level dynamics hang behind the main activity, questionable storm coverage in Texas, surface low may be slower to develop.
Wednesday – Southeastern Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley
TORNADO RANGE: 4-10 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, good speed shear, decent directional shear in the southernmost parts of the risk area.
Cons: Poor directional shear in most spots, which would allow the storm mode to be more linear, some separation between the best dynamics and best instability
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This week looks like the first classic setup. Wondering if the season is skewed to a later start and is there any basis for seeing higher activity in late May – early June?
That would have some precedent coming out of an El Nino. We’ll see though! https://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/03/30/how-does-el-nino-la-nina-or-la-nada-impact-the-following-tornado-season/