Tornado Threat Forecast: May 9-15, 2016

The southern Plains is the place to be for tornado potential over the next seven days, though the potential is not particularly great for any individual day. Today’s threat looks like it is the most potent out of the bunch, but there could be upside potential to Sunday if things come together a bit better than what the models are currently showing.

1-3 Day

Monday – Eastern Plains, central Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 6-16 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Eastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, western Arkansas

Pros: Moderate instability, good/excellent low-level directional shear, good speed shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels, cloud cover and convective showers limiting the potential across and central Mississippi Valley.

Tuesday – Central Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, good low-to-mid level directional shear, decent upper-level speed shear.
Cons: Weak low-to-mid level speed shear, subtle hints of backing winds in the upper-levels little/no upper-level support.

Tuesday – Ohio Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, decent low-level directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Unidirectional or backing mid-to-upper level winds, mid-level speed shear is somewhat weak, weak upper-level dynamics.

Wednesday – Southern Plains, far eastern Kansas, central Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, areas with backing winds in the upper-levels, upper-level forcing lags well behind the storms, potential capping issues in Texas.

4-7 Day

Thursday – Ohio Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, (possible) localized areas of decent low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, unidirectional or slightly backed mid-to-upper level winds, weak upper-level dynamics.

Friday

No tornadoes expected.

Saturday – Western Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent low-level directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, unidirectional to backed winds in the mid-to-upper levels, weak upper-level forcing, questionable storm mode and coverage.

Sunday – Southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: Oklahoma

Pros: Moderate instability, good low-level directional and speed shear.
Cons: Neutral/rising heights, weak/decent speed shear in the mid-levels, weak upper-level forcing, questionable storm coverage (mainly for Texas).