Tornado Threat Forecast: May 26-June 1, 2016

Tornado threats in the Plains in late May? Yeah, not a big surprise, but today and Friday are showing good tornado potential before a weaker pattern sets up for next week.

Semi-abridged version because I am very, very tired.

1-3 Day

Thursday – Central and southern Plains, west-central Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 14-30 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Kansas

Pros: Moderate to high instability, good/excellent low-level directional shear, good speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Backing winds in the upper-levels in some areas, storm mode expected to grow upscale rather quickly.

Friday – East-central and southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 8-20 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Southern Plains

Pros: Moderate to high instability, good low-level directional shear, decent/good upper-level forcing.
Cons: Unidirectional to backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels, potential for morning cloud cover and convection contamination within the risk area.

Saturday – Southern and east-central Plains, western Midwest

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 6-14 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good low-level directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Unidirectional to backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels, weak areas of mid-level speed shear, weak/decent upper-level dynamics.