After a slow start to the week, a dynamic storm system could provide a more consistent tornado threat during the back half of the week. However, concerns about available instability and storm mode will likely keep the day-to-day tornado count low through the weekend.
1-3 Day
Monday – Central High Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, decent/good speed shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Low storm coverage, little to no upper-level dynamics.
Tuesday
No tornadoes expected.
Wednesday – East-central Plains, western Midwest
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good low-level directional shear, good speed shear.
Cons: Questionable storm mode and coverage, weak upper-level dynamics, unidirectional mid-to-upper level shear.
4-7 Day
Thursday
No tornadoes expected.
Friday – Southern Oklahoma, northern Texas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-5 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, good/excellent low-level directional shear, good speed shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level shear, questionable storm mode.
Saturday – Tennessee Valley
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Decent/good directional shear, good/excellent speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, questionable storm mode.
Sunday – Carolinas, southeastern Virginia
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, poor/decent directional shear, unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, questionable storm mode.
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