Tornado Threat Forecast: May 10-16, 2012

1-3 DAY

Thursday

Southern Texas — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: High
Low to moderate CAPE and moderate to high shear will combine to bring the potential for one to several tornadoes to southern Texas today as an upper-level low slowly drifts eastward across the state. Directional shear will be excellent in some areas, but relatively weak mid-level wind speeds could work against the tornado potential. If the instability and/or mid-level winds can become a little stronger, we could be looking at at least several tornadoes today.

Friday

Southern Texas — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Normal
As the upper-level low progresses eastward, southern Texas is forecast to lose some of the instability and upper-level support compared to Thursday’s threat, but it seems likely that at least one or two tornadoes are possible.

Saturday

No tornadic activity expected.

4-7 DAY

Sunday

No tornadic activity expected.

Monday

Western Texas — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Another upper-level low will work into the south-central U.S. on Monday, with low to moderate shear and enough CAPE to possibly produce a tornado. Low-level winds will be on the weak side, keeping the potential very limited.

Tuesday

Southern Texas — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
The upper-level low will carry this very low tornado risk into southern Texas on Tuesday, but with weaker shear and slightly higher instability.

Wednesday

No tornadic activity expected.