1-3 DAY
Northeastern Mid-Atlantic — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: High
Storms forming ahead of a cold front are in an environment with enough directional shear for a tornado, but speed shear and instability are on the low end.
Monday
No tornadic activity expected.
Tuesday
No tornadic activity expected.
4-7 DAY
Northeastern Mid-Atlantic — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: High
A weak shortwave disturbance will work into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, providing enough directional shear for the potential for a tornado, but like Sunday the speed shear in the low to mid levels will be fairly weak, along with low amounts of CAPE.
Thursday
Northern Plains — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
A shortwave trough working through south-central Canada could trigger storms in the northern Plains, but weak speed shear in the low-levels and a fairly dry low-levels will inhibit storms from becoming tornadic.
Friday
Northeastern U.S. — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
The European operational model develops a strong disturbance as a fairly strong vort. max rolls through the northeastern U.S. while the GFS has a weaker, more progressive storm. The European appears to be a stronger/slower outlier compared to the GFS/Euro ensemble models, keeping confidence on the tornado potential low.
Saturday
No tornadic activity expected.
Jason Persoff, MD, SFHM, is recognized globally for his expertise in storm chasing. He earned…
Tornado numbers were near or above average. A chase season peak in June provided numerous…
One of the more widespread tornado outbreaks in years, from Iowa and Illinois to Arkansas.
The active start of the year could be a sign, but a mid-March pattern change…
A near average year for tornadoes across the country, with a cool season bend. We've…
The twister quickly popped up near sunset and rapidly turned violent.