Tornado Threat Special Update: Isaac 8/26-29

As Tropical Storm Isaac intensifies and moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, it will likely produce tornadoes across the Southeast for several days. Isaac’s tornado threat will probably continue beyond the Wednesday cut-off in the forecast, and if it does I will issue an update in a couple of days once the track and timing can be better forecast.

Confidence in the forecast for today is high, with normal confidence in tomorrow’s forecast. The forecasts for Tuesday and Wednesday have low confidence considering the uncertainty in the track and intensity of Isaac once it reaches the northern Gulf Coast.

As a very rough estimate, for the period of 8/26-29 I would expect between 25-50 tornadoes based on some of the historical data that Ian pulled up on past tropical systems that impacted the same general region.

You can keep up with the latest forecasts for Isaac on the National Hurricane Center’s web site.