Tornado Threat Forecast: April 25-May 1, 2013

The “later than usual because I took a really long nap” edition. Very little activity expected as we get closer to the climatological peak of tornado season.

1-3 DAY

Thursday

No tornadic activity expected.

Friday

Southern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: High
As a weak disturbance pushes through the southern Plains, it could trigger some warm sector storms that will be in an environment with moderate CAPE and will have plenty of shear to potentially produce a tornado or two. One big caveat to the potential will be the stout cap in place over the warm sector, which will greatly inhibit storm formation south of a frontal boundary.

Saturday

Southern Texas — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
Moderate CAPE will remain in the warm sector to fuel thunderstorms, but weak speed shear will keep the tornado potential limited.

4-7 DAY

Sunday

No tornadic activity expected.

Monday

Southern Texas — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Low to moderate CAPE will be in place in southern Texas as storms fire, with enough shear to get storms to rotate though speed shear will be fairly weak in the risk area and will limit the overall tornado potential.

Tuesday

Central Plains — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
A cold front will push into the central Plains on Tuesday and will trigger some storms, but most of the activity is expected to be behind the front, with a very limited opportunity for surface-based storms ahead of the front in an environment with low to moderate CAPE and fairly weak shear.

Wednesday

Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Weak shear will keep the tornado potential fairly limited as most of the precipitation near an advancing cold front remains behind the front. Spotty convection ahead of the front may be able to organize enough in a low to moderate CAPE environment to produce a tornado.