Tornado Threat Forecast: May 2-8, 2013

1-3 DAY

Thursday

No tornadic activity expected.

Friday

Eastern Gulf Coast — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: High
There will be enough instability and directional shear ahead of a cold front that storms could rotate and potentially produce a tornado.

Saturday

Southern Georgia, Florida — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: High
Speed shear will be very weak, but with instability up to 1500 J/kg along with some directional shear, storms that form along/ahead of the cold front could mature enough to put down a tornado.

4-7 DAY

Sunday

Eastern Georgia, South Carolina — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Similar setup as Saturday, but with lower instability and better low-level shear.

Monday

No tornadic activity expected.

Tuesday

No tornadic activity expected.

Wednesday

Central High Plains — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Low
A lee trough with favorable directional shear and low to moderate CAPE could trigger supercells capable of producing tornadoes, but speed shear will probably be on the weak side as the upper-level forcing hangs back over the Southwest and has little impact on the day’s setup.