Tornado Threat Forecast: June 21-27, 2013

Trying out a different format this time around. My discussions are there just to point out the pros and cons of any setup, so I figured I could make these posts more concise if I just listed the pros and cons off instead.

1-3 DAY

Friday

Texas Panhandle — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Good directional shear, moderate instability
Cons: Weak speed shear, high LCLs

North-central U.S. — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Good low-level shear, moderate/high instability, shortwave trough
Cons: Winds aloft somewhat weak, backing winds in the upper levels

Saturday

North-central U.S. — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Good low-level shear, decent speed shear, moderate/high instability, upper-level trough
Cons: Backing winds in the upper levels

Sunday

Central Plains, Midwest — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Good low-level shear, moderate/high instability, upper-level trough
Cons: Somewhat-low upper-level wind speeds, backing winds in the upper levels in some areas

4-7 DAY

Monday

North-central U.S. — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Very good directional shear, moderate speed shear, moderate/high instability, surface low to the west, shortwave through
Cons: Uncertainty with storm coverage, height rises across the central and eastern parts of the risk area

Tuesday

Northern Plains, northern Midwest — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Good directional shear, moderate/high instability
Cons: Weak/moderate speed shear, storm coverage concerns

Wednesday

Northern Midwest, Great Lakes — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Low
Pros: High instability
Cons: Mostly unidirectional shear, weak speed shear aloft

Thursday

Midwest, northern Mid-Atlantic — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Low
Pros: Moderate/high instability, upper-level trough, northwesterly flow in the upper-level in the western areas
Cons: Mostly unidirectional shear and lower instability in the eastern areas