Tornado Threat Forecast: July 2-8, 2013

The “I’m sick and spent most of yesterday sleeping” edition.

1-3 DAY

Tuesday

Ohio Valley — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Decent/good directional shear, upper-level forcing, good low-level lapse rates
Cons: Low instability, weak low-level speed shear, weak mid-level lapse rates

Mid-Atlantic, eastern Carolinas — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Moderate instability, strong low-level jet
Cons: Weak/decent directional shear, weak mid-level lapse rates

Wednesday

Southeast — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Good directional shear, right-entrance region of an upper-level jet
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, training could keep instability low

Thursday

eastern Gulf Coast — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Good directional shear, potential for waterspouts that could come ashore
Cons: Weak low-level speed shear, low instability, backing winds in the upper-levels

4-7 DAY

Friday

No tornadic activity expected.

Saturday

Southeast — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Decent directional shear, pockets of moderate instability
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, weak lapse rates

Sunday

No tornadic activity expected.

Monday

No tornadic activity expected.