Tornado Threat Forecast: Oct 3-4, 2013

I’m back with a forecast finally! It has been awhile since we have seen a storm with good enough potential for an update.

Thursday

Eastern Nebraska, Iowa — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Good directional shear, moderate instability, left-exit region of approaching jet streak.
Cons: Storm initiation/coverage is questionable with somewhat-capped atmosphere, no notable vort. max to help forcing.

Friday

Central Plains, western Midwest — POTENTIAL: High — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Pros: Strong shear, moderate to high instability, strong vort. max and good surface convergence along two frontal boundaries.
Cons: Uncertainty with storm coverage in the area of greatest potential, which is basically Iowa. Storms may line out early and would shorten the window for supercells. High LCLs could limit initial potential, especially in the southern areas.