Tornado Threat Forecast: June 15-21, 2015

The break for storm chasing and recovery is over, so it’s time to get back to making some forecasts! We are going to post a chasecation 2015 summary at some point this summer, with some extra details, stats, and even more storm pictures.

1-3 Day

Monday

Eastern Wyoming — TORNADO RANGE: 1-3 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Good directional shear, decent speed shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Little upper-level forcing, concerns with storm mode.

Western Gulf Coast — TORNADO RANGE: 0-2 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent low-level shear, low LCLs, some semi-tropical forcing.
Cons: Weak mid-to-upper level speed shear, weak mid-level lapse rates.

Tuesday

Central High Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 1-3 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, good directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Mid-level winds are a bit weak, lack of upper-level forcing.

Eastern Texas — TORNADO RANGE: 0-2 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent low-level shear, low LCLs, some semi-tropical forcing.
Cons: Weak mid-to-upper level speed shear, weak mid-level lapse rates.

Wednesday

Northern and central High Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 1-4 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, good directional shear, decent mid-to-upper level speed shear in some areas.
Cons: Fairly weak low-level speed shear, surface winds are more northeasterly in the northern half of the risk area, very little upper-level forcing, some areas have weak mid-level shear.

4-7 Day

Thursday

Northern High Plains, central Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 3-8 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, good directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Lack of upper-level forcing, questionable storm coverage.

Friday

Northern Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 2-6 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Eastern South Dakota, ND/SD border
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good directional shear, good mid-to-upper level speed shear.
Cons: Lackluster low-level speed shear, rising heights, lack of upper-level forcing.

Saturday

No tornadoes expected.

Sunday

Eastern Kansas, western Missouri — TORNADO RANGE: 0-3 — CONFIDENCE: Low
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Lack of upper-level forcing, questionable storm coverage, neutral/weakly rising heights.