Tornado Threat Forecast: April 21-27, 2016

Ayyy how you been? Your favorite(/only) 7-day tornado forecast is back! While the short-term looks to be on the quiet side, the pattern for next week is starting to look interesting.

1-3 Day

Thursday

No tornadoes expected.

Friday

No tornadoes expected.

Saturday – Central High Plains

TORNADO RANGE: 0-1 — CONFIDENCE: High
Expected Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good directional shear, decent speed shear, low-to-moderate instability initially, some upper-level dynamic support.
Cons: High LCLs, low moisture at the surface, questionable storm coverage/placement, low instability after sunset.

4-7 Day

Sunday – East-central Plains, western Midwest

TORNADO RANGE: 2-7 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent/good directional shear, good speed shear, low-to-moderate instability, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low-level moisture could be questionable, some potential for backing winds in the upper-levels.

Monday

No tornadoes expected.

Tuesday – Southern and central Plains

TORNADO RANGE: 8-20 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hot-spot: Southern Kansas, Oklahoma

Pros: Moderate to high instability, good/excellent directional shear, good speed shear, great upper-level lapse rates, upside risk if the system ends up closer to the GFS solutions.
Cons: Upper-level dynamics hang behind the main activity, questionable storm coverage in Texas, surface low may be slower to develop.

Wednesday – Southeastern Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley

TORNADO RANGE: 4-10 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, good speed shear, decent directional shear in the southernmost parts of the risk area.
Cons: Poor directional shear in most spots, which would allow the storm mode to be more linear, some separation between the best dynamics and best instability