Tornado Threat Forecast: May 2-8, 2016

Mother Nature is taking the work week off for the most part, but tornado activity is expected to perk back up this weekend.

1-3 Day

Monday – Southern Mid-Atlantic, western North Carolina

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, decent/good speed shear, low to moderate instability, decent upper-level dynamic support.
Cons: Unidirectional shear in the mid-to-upper levels, some hints at backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels, storms will tend to cluster or line out.

Tuesday – Eastern North Carolina

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-1 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent speed shear, decent upper-level forcing.
Cons: Low instability, questionable directional shear, backing winds in the upper-levels, poor/decent lapse rates.

Wednesday

No tornadoes expected.

4-7 Day

Thursday

No tornadoes expected.

Friday – Eastern Wyoming, north-central Colorado

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, good mid-to-upper level speed shear, decent upper-level dynamic support.
Cons: Low instability, high LCLs, weak low-level speed shear.

Saturday – Central and southern High Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, good speed shear, decent/good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Questionable storm coverage, low instability, hints of backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels (mainly in the northern half of the risk area), high LCLs.

Sunday – Central and southern Plains, west-central Midwest

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 4-10 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, good speed shear, low-to-moderate instability, decent/good upper-level support.
Cons: Potential capping issues in the southern Plains, unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, some hints at backing winds in the upper levels, storm mode lends to more clustered/linear storms.