Tornado Threat Forecast: May 5-11, 2016

The south-central U.S. will see tornado threats reappear this weekend, with daily threats continuing into mid-week next week.

1-3 Day

Thursday

No tornadoes expected.

Friday

No tornadoes expected.

Saturday – West-central and southwestern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: West-central Plains

Pros: Good/excellent low-level directional shear, low to moderate instability, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Unidirectional or backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels, questionable storm coverage, questionable surface moisture, storms near the warm front in CO/NE could quickly jump north of the front.

Saturday – Ohio Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-1 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, good speed shear.
Cons: Poor/decent low level directional shear, little upper-level support, unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds.

4-7 Day

Sunday – Central and southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 7-18 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Kansas, western Oklahoma

Pros: Good/excellent low-level directional shear, low to moderate instability, good/excellent speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Unidirectional winds in the mid-to-upper levels, potential capping issues (mainly in the southern Plains).

Monday – Far eastern Plains, central and southern Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 5-12 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent speed shear, low to moderate instability, decent/good low-level directional shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Unidirectional winds in the mid-to-upper levels, slightly backing winds in the upper levels.

Tuesday – Central and northeastern Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good directional shear.
Cons: Little to no upper level support, weak/decent speed shear, uncertainty with storm coverage.

Tuesday – Ohio Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-1 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, good speed shear.
Cons: Poor directional shear, weak upper-level dynamics, potential issues with morning rain/clouds lingering in the area.

Wednesday – Southern Plains, central Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 5-12 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good directional shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, uncertainty in the strength and placement of the upper-level dynamics.