The southern Plains is the place to be for tornado potential over the next seven days, though the potential is not particularly great for any individual day. Today’s threat looks like it is the most potent out of the bunch, but there could be upside potential to Sunday if things come together a bit better than what the models are currently showing.
Monday – Eastern Plains, central Mississippi Valley
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 6-16 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Eastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, western Arkansas
Pros: Moderate instability, good/excellent low-level directional shear, good speed shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels, cloud cover and convective showers limiting the potential across and central Mississippi Valley.
Tuesday – Central Texas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good low-to-mid level directional shear, decent upper-level speed shear.
Cons: Weak low-to-mid level speed shear, subtle hints of backing winds in the upper-levels little/no upper-level support.
Tuesday – Ohio Valley
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, decent low-level directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Unidirectional or backing mid-to-upper level winds, mid-level speed shear is somewhat weak, weak upper-level dynamics.
Wednesday – Southern Plains, far eastern Kansas, central Mississippi Valley
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, areas with backing winds in the upper-levels, upper-level forcing lags well behind the storms, potential capping issues in Texas.
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, (possible) localized areas of decent low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, unidirectional or slightly backed mid-to-upper level winds, weak upper-level dynamics.
Friday
No tornadoes expected.
Saturday – Western Texas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good/excellent low-level directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, unidirectional to backed winds in the mid-to-upper levels, weak upper-level forcing, questionable storm mode and coverage.
Sunday – Southern Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: Oklahoma
Pros: Moderate instability, good low-level directional and speed shear.
Cons: Neutral/rising heights, weak/decent speed shear in the mid-levels, weak upper-level forcing, questionable storm coverage (mainly for Texas).
Jason Persoff, MD, SFHM, is recognized globally for his expertise in storm chasing. He earned…
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