Tornado Threat Forecast: May 12-18, 2016

A pretty quiet end to this week, but could there be trouble in Texas during the first half of next week?

1-3 Day

Thursday

No tornadoes expected.

Friday – Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, Kansas, southwestern Midwest

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent speed shear in the Midwest, decent/good upper-level dynamics in the Midwest, good directional shear in the Plains.
Cons: Limited moisture and instability, weak/decent directional shear in the Midwest, weak/decent speed shear in the Plains, weak upper-level dynamics in the Plains, questionable storm mode.

Saturday – West Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-1 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, low instability, little upper-level forcing.

4-7 Day

Sunday – Western Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, weak upper-level dynamics, weak mid-level lapse rates.

Monday – Southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-6 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, good/excellent low-level directional shear, decent speed shear, decent upper-level forcing north of Texas.
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, weak upper-level forcing in Texas, potential capping issues, uncertainty with the storm coverage and timing of the upper-level forcing.

Tuesday – ArkLaTex region

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent low-level directional shear.
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds expected to bring more cluster/line storm types instead of supercells, questionable low-level lapse rates, weak upper-level forcing.

Wednesday – Southern Texas, Louisiana

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, good directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, storm coverage/capping issues, weak upper-level dynamics.