Tornado Threat Forecast: May 16-22, 2016

That time when mid-May didn’t really look that exciting in terms of tornado potential. Chasers should save their gas money for late May.

1-3 Day

Monday – Southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-6 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma

Pros: Good/excellent low-level directional shear, decent/good speed shear, moderate instability, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Questionable storm mode and storm coverage, backing winds in the mid-levels in Texas, potential capping issues.

Tuesday – ArkLaTex region

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good directional shear, moderate to high instability.
Cons: Very little upper-level support, questionable storm mode.

Wednesday – Southern Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, good low-level directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Little upper-level dynamic support, capping issues, questionable storm mode.

4-7 Day

Thursday – Southern Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, moderate to high instability
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, questionable storm mode, little upper-level support.

Friday – Deep South

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak speed shear, very little upper-level support, cloud cover/rain in the morning and early afternoon limiting instability.

Saturday – Central and southern High Plains, central Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak speed shear, little to no upper-level support

Sunday – Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-6 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, little upper-level support.