Tornado Threat Forecast: June 2-8, 2016

While there were some gems in May, it was slim pickings for much of the month as the tornado count ended up lower than normal. What does early June have in store?

The “I was busy and then needed to sleep so I skipped Monday” version.

1-3 Day

Thursday – Western Dakotas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, decent speed shear, some upper-level dynamic support.
Cons: Limited storm coverage, high LCLs, somewhat low instability, weakness in the mid-level speed shear.

Friday – Upper Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, decent/good upper-level dynamics, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, backing winds in the upper-levels

Saturday

No tornadoes expected.

4-7 Day

Sunday – Mid-Atlantic

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent speed shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Weak/decent low-level directional shear, mostly linear storm mode, questionable daytime heating in some spots.

Monday – Florida

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, decent speed shear, tropical forcing.
Cons: Low instability, poor mid-to-upper level lapse rates.

Tuesday

No tornadoes expected.

Wednesday – High Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent low-level directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, weak upper-level dynamics, neutral/rising heights, questionable storm coverage.