Tornado Threat Forecast: May 2-8, 2017

It’s the start of peak chase season, but I hope you like chasing in the jungle, otherwise the next seven days will be slim pickings for chasers. Low tornado counts are good news for everyone else. 

1-3 Day

Tuesday

No tornadoes expected.

Wednesday – Eastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Mississippi

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 6-14 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, good low-level directional shear, good/excellent speed shear.
Cons: Advancing cold front will make storms line-out, some of the best storms may form north of the warm front, staying elevated.

Thursday – Southeast

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-6 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good low-level directional shear, good speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Mostly linear storm mode due to unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, low instability.

4-7 Day

Friday – Eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New England

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent low-level directional shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, linear storm mode.

Saturday

No tornadoes expected.

Sunday

No tornadoes expected.

Monday

No tornadoes expected.