Tornado Threat Forecast: May 4-10, 2017

The next seven days will feature mainly low tornado threats, with tornadoes expected to return to the Plains during the first half of next week.

1-3 Day

Thursday – Eastern Southeast, Virginia

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-5 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, mostly linear storm mode due to unidirectional winds in the mid-to-upper levels.

Friday – Eastern Mid-Atlantic, eastern North Carolina

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, mostly linear storm mode due to unidirectional winds in the mid-to-upper levels, drying in the mid-to-upper levels behind the main line of storms could inhibit potential afternoon activity, backing winds in the upper-levels.

Saturday

No tornadoes expected.

4-7 Day

Sunday

No tornadoes expected.

Monday – Southern High Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent low-level directional shear, decent/good speed shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Little to no upper-level support, questionable storm coverage.

Tuesday – Central and southern High Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good low-level directional shear, good speed shear.
Cons: Weak upper-level support, either unidirectional or backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels, questionable storm coverage.

Wednesday – Central and southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good low-level directional shear, decent/good speed shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Mostly unidirectional winds in the mid-to-upper levels, uncertainty with the overall storm coverage and the position of the threat area.