Tornado Threat Forecast

Tornado Threat Forecast: May 23-29, 2017

For late May, it’s harder to get much quieter than this. Aside from Friday and Saturday, tornado threats over the next seven days look pretty minimal.

1-3 Day


Tuesday – Eastern Southeast

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, good speed shear, decent low-level directional shear.
Cons: Somewhat weak upper-level support and clouds and rain already in the threat area could limit tornadic storm development, storm mode will be mostly linear due to unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds.

Wednesday – Eastern Southeast, southern Virginia

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-6 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Carolinas

Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, good speed shear, decent/good upper-level support.
Cons: Unidirectional/backing mid-to-upper level winds, low instability.

Thursday – Central High Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, fairly weak low-to-mid level speed shear, questionable storm coverage and storm mode.

4-7 Day


Friday – Central Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-7 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, low to moderate instability, decent mid-to-upper level speed shear.
Cons: Fairly weak low-level speed shear, weak upper-level support.

Saturday – Southeastern Plains, central Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 7-18 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, good speed shear, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Fairly unidirectional winds in the mid-to-upper levels with some hints of backing winds, advancing cold front will try to make storms more linear, weak upper-level support.

Sunday – Texas, northern Louisiana

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Poor/decent speed shear, little to no upper-level support.

Monday – Southern High Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good low-to-mid level directional shear, low-to-moderate instability.
Cons: Weak low-to-mid level speed shear, weak upper-level support.

The following two tabs change content below.
Operational Meteorologist at WeatherBug (Earth Networks). See full bio.

Latest posts by Mark Ellinwood (see all)

Mark Ellinwood

Operational Meteorologist at WeatherBug (Earth Networks). See full bio.

View Comments

  • I love your outlooks guys. I also know you guys are definitely busy. But I really look into your tornado threat forecasts. I know there was a lull for several days, but recently a bit higher tornado probabilities have been introduced and am looking forward to your next outlook. I hope its posted soon! =]

Share
Published by
Mark Ellinwood

Recent Posts

Claiming Mega Wins Free Spins Deals For UK Players

{ "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://ustornadoes.com/2026/07/30/claiming-mega-wins-free-spins-deals-for-uk-players/" }, "headline": "Claiming Mega…

3 days ago

Daytonaspin Registration Steps For Players In The United Kingdom

Getting Started with Daytonaspin: A Guide for UK Players For players in the United Kingdom…

3 days ago

Pink Lady Casino Registration In The United Kingdom Guide

{ "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://ustornadoes.com/2026/07/30/pink-lady-casino-registration-in-the-united-kingdom-guide/" }, "headline": "Pink Lady…

3 days ago

Extreme Spins Payment Methods For United Kingdom Players

Understanding Your Payment Options at Extreme Spins Navigating the financial landscape of an online casino…

3 days ago

MySpins Welcome Bonus For UK Players: A Complete Guide

Understanding the MySpins Welcome Bonus in the United Kingdom For players in the United Kingdom,…

3 days ago

Tornado outbreaks: April, May and June peak-season primer

It's peak tornado season. We briefly examine the top outbreaks from April-June.

1 year ago