For late May, it’s harder to get much quieter than this. Aside from Friday and Saturday, tornado threats over the next seven days look pretty minimal.
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, good speed shear, decent low-level directional shear.
Cons: Somewhat weak upper-level support and clouds and rain already in the threat area could limit tornadic storm development, storm mode will be mostly linear due to unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds.
Wednesday – Eastern Southeast, southern Virginia
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-6 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Carolinas
Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, good speed shear, decent/good upper-level support.
Cons: Unidirectional/backing mid-to-upper level winds, low instability.
Thursday – Central High Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, fairly weak low-to-mid level speed shear, questionable storm coverage and storm mode.
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-7 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, low to moderate instability, decent mid-to-upper level speed shear.
Cons: Fairly weak low-level speed shear, weak upper-level support.
Saturday – Southeastern Plains, central Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 7-18 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good speed shear, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Fairly unidirectional winds in the mid-to-upper levels with some hints of backing winds, advancing cold front will try to make storms more linear, weak upper-level support.
Sunday – Texas, northern Louisiana
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Poor/decent speed shear, little to no upper-level support.
Monday – Southern High Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good low-to-mid level directional shear, low-to-moderate instability.
Cons: Weak low-to-mid level speed shear, weak upper-level support.
Jason Persoff, MD, SFHM, is recognized globally for his expertise in storm chasing. He earned…
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I love your outlooks guys. I also know you guys are definitely busy. But I really look into your tornado threat forecasts. I know there was a lull for several days, but recently a bit higher tornado probabilities have been introduced and am looking forward to your next outlook. I hope its posted soon! =]