Tornado Threat Forecast: May 7-13, 2018

Mother Nature went back to sleep and has hit the snooze button on the second week of May. Opportunities for a couple of tornadoes here and there, but each day’s setup looks like it will be hard to come by many tornadoes. However, we are heading into mid-May, where more subtle setups at range can yield higher-than-expected tornado counts if the mesoscale ingredients line up just right.

1-3 Day

Monday

No tornadoes expected.

Tuesday – East-central Plains, southwestern Midwest

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, good/excellent low-level directional shear, good low-to-mid level speed shear.
Cons: Weaker upper-level winds, some backing winds in the upper levels, potential low-level moisture concerns.

Wednesday – Illinois, Indiana, western Kentucky

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-7 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good low-level directional shear, decent/good speed shear.
Cons: Questionable low-level moisture, mostly unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds.

4-7 Day

Thursday – Southern South Dakota, northern Nebraska

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, good/excellent directional shear, decent/good low-level speed shear.
Cons: Questionable low-level moisture, high LCLs, weak/decent mid-to-upper level speed shear.

Friday – Southern Nebraska, far northern Kansas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, good low-level directional shear, good speed shear
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, potential low-level moisture issues in the western areas, capping issues in the eastern areas.

Saturday

No tornadoes expected.

Sunday – Southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Questionable storm coverage in the warm sector, weak/decent speed shear, unidirectional winds in the mid-to-upper levels, little to no upper-level dynamics.