Tornado Threat Forecast: April 25-May 1, 2019

May is now in the 7 day forecast! I repeat, May is now in the 7 day forecast! Prepare yourselves.

While the back half of this week is looking fairly tame, next week looks like it’s ready to kick off a more active storm pattern in the central U.S.

1-3 Day

Thursday – Gulf Coast

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-6 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, good speed shear, decent dynamics.
Cons: Poor/decent directional shear, questionable storm mode.

Friday – Mid-Atlantic, North Carolina

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 4-10 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent speed shear, good dynamics, decent/good directional shear.
Cons: Low instability, mostly linear storm mode, unidirectional southwesterly winds in the mid-to-upper levels.

Saturday

No tornadoes expected.

4-7 Day

Sunday

No tornadoes expected.

Monday – Northern Texas, southern Oklahoma

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, good low-level directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Mid-level speed shear is a little weak, potential mid-level capping issues that could lead to limited warm sector convection, fairly unidirectional mid-to-upper level shear, poor upper-level dynamics.

Tuesday – Southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 10-25 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, decent/good speed and directional shear.
Cons: Weak upper-level dynamics, potential storm mode concerns in the northern parts of the risk area, potential capping concerns in the far southern parts of the risk area.

Wednesday – South-central U.S.

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 10-25 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, good directional shear, decent/good speed shear.
Cons: Uncertainty with area of concern and overall storm coverage, poor/decent upper-level dynamics.