Tornado Threat Forecast: June 28-July 4, 2012

1-3 DAY

Thursday

Nebraska, northern Kansas — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: High
Storms will be forming in a fairly dry low-level environment with weak mid-level shear, but there with moderate to high CAPE and good directional shear storms that form could potentially become tornadic.

Friday

West-central Midwest — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Storms forming along a stalled frontal boundary will be in a similar environment as Thursday, with moderate to high CAPE, low to moderate shear and low-level moisture issues. The overall shear looks marginally better compared to Thursday.

Maine — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Storms forming near the triple-point of a disturbance will be in a moderate CAPE and moderate to high shear environment, but directional shear will be fairly weak overall, limiting the tornado potential.

Saturday

Central Mid-Atlantic — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Storms that form within the risk area may have enough low-level rotation to become tornadic within a moderate CAPE and moderate shear environment.

Nebraska, southern South Dakota — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
A cluster of storms forming in a moderate CAPE and low shear environment will have enough rotation to potentially come tornadic, but a lack of upper-level support and fairly dry low-levels will keep the potential very limited.

4-7 DAY

Sunday

Eastern Montana — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Storms forming in a low to moderate CAPE and moderate to high shear environment could become tornadic. However, a lack of low-level moisture will inhibit tornado formation.

West-central Midwest — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
A moderate to high CAPE and low shear environment will be in place over the risk area, with sufficient directional shear for possible tornadic activity.

Monday

Northern Plains— POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
A short-wave trough moving across southern Canada and the northern Plains could trigger storms with tornadic potential in a low to moderate shear and moderate CAPE environment. Model spread has become significant enough at this point to keep confidence lower than normal.

Tuesday

Northwestern Midwest — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
As the short-wave trough pushes eastward, it will have a similar environment as Monday in which a tornado or two is possible.

Wednesday

Western Great Lakes — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
Moderate CAPE will still be present near an advancing short-wave trough, however weaker mid-level winds and weaker directional shear will keep the tornado potential to a minimum.