Tornado Threat Forecast: July 2-8, 2012

1-3 DAY

Monday

Northwestern Midwest — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Normal
A short-wave trough working across south-central Canada will trigger storms in a moderate to high CAPE and low to moderate shear environment, with enough low-level rotation to allow for tornadic storms.

Tuesday

Northern Plains — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: High
The main upper-level trough that has been sitting over the Northwest for quite some time will start to eject northeastward, bringing moderate shear into an environment with low to moderate CAPE. A lack of low-level moisture and less-than-favorable speed shear in the upper-level will limit the tornado potential.

Great Lakes — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
As the short-wave trough works into the Great Lakes, it will lose some of its directional shear and instability, but it will still be capable of producing a tornadic storm or two.

Carolinas, southern Virginia — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Storms will form in a region with high CAPE and enough directional shear for some tornadic potential, but the speed shear will be very weak, keeping the overall threat to a minimum.

Wednesday

Northern Plains — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Normal
The main dynamics with the upper-level trough will remain displaced north well into central Canada, keeping the tornado potential limited. Storms forming ahead of a cold front will have moderate to high CAPE and low to moderate shear to play with, but the storms may not be able to be discrete for long before lining out, which will keep the potential limited.

Northeast, northern Mid-Atlantic — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Storms forming ahead of a cold front will have moderate CAPE and low to moderate shear, but mid-level lapse rates and somewhat weak low-level directional shear will inhibit the tornado potential.

4-7 DAY

Thursday

South Dakota, northern Nebraska — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
A weak short-wave trough will bring a low tornado risk into the northern Plains on Thursday as moderate instability remains in place, with low to moderate shear also in the risk area. Upper-level support will be fairly weak overall, which combined with backed winds in the upper-levels will keep the overall potential fairly limited.

Friday

No tornadic activity expected.

Saturday

No tornadic activity expected.

Sunday

No tornadic activity expected.