Tornado Threat Forecast: July 5-11, 2012

1-3 DAY

Thursday

South Dakota, northeast Wyoming — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: High
A stalled frontal boundary will help trigger storms in a moderate CAPE and low shear environment. Initially high LCLs and weak upper-level support will keep the tornado threat fairly minimal despite good directional shear and instability.

Friday

Northwestern Midwest — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: High
Moderate CAPE will be wedged up against a stalled frontal boundary again on Friday, but with speed shear remaining fairly weak and directional shear weakening, the potential for tornadic storms is very low.

Saturday

No tornadic activity expected.

4-7 DAY

Sunday

Southern Mid-Atlantic — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Moderate to high CAPE ahead of a cold front will be in an environment with weak shear, but there may be enough low-level rotation for a brief tornado within the risk area.

Monday

Carolinas — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
The setup will be similar to Sunday, with speed shear remaining very weak, which will be the main inhibitor to the tornado potential.

Tuesday

Location — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Low to moderate shear, moderate CAPE and some low-level directional shear in a northwest-flow regime could allow for a tornadic storm to form.

Wednesday

West-central Midwest — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
A short-wave disturbance working into the northern Midwest will bring moderate shear into an environment with moderate CAPE. This could allow for a more organized severe threat, with enough rotation present for a low tornado threat.