Tornado Threat Forecast: May 9-15, 2013

Just two more of these next week, then it’s time for some chasecationing for three weeks!

1-3 DAY

Thursday

Southern Plains, Louisiana — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Scattered storms will continue to form in an environment with low to moderate CAPE and decent directional shear. Low-level winds will be fairly weak, but mature storms could gather enough strength to produce a tornado or two.

Friday

Western Gulf — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Storms forming ahead of a sagging frontal boundary will have low to moderate instability to work with along with decent to good directional shear, but weak speed shear will keep the tornado potential limited.

Mid-Atlantic — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
Low to maybe moderate instability will develop ahead of a surface low, with south/southwesterly flow expected in the lee trough that could allow for rotating storms and possibly a tornado despite weak speed shear.

Saturday

Florida — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Another area of low to moderate instability will develop over Florida ahead of a cold front, with very weak shear but enough directional shear that long-lived storms could potentially drop a tornado.

4-7 DAY

Sunday

No tornadic activity expected.

Monday

No tornadic activity expected.

Tuesday

Southern Texas — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Directional shear will be favorable for rotating storms ahead of an upper-level low, but low instability will keep most storms from getting strong enough to possibly produce a tornado.

Wednesday

Kansas, Oklahoma, northern Texas — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
A lee low could draw in more moisture into the Plains, allowing for low to moderate instability near the dryline which will trigger some storms. Good directional shear is in the forecast, but speed shear looks to be lacking once again.