Tornado Threat Forecast: May 6-12, 2013

What’s this? Chaseable storms?!? Well gee golly gosh! Not much of a setup to look at, but it’s better than nothing.

1-3 DAY

Monday

North Carolina — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
A narrow corridor of 500-1500 J/kg CAPE has developed with favorable low- and mid-level lapse rates, with enough directional shear for a tornado this afternoon/evening with the isolated cells that are developing.

Tuesday

Central High Plains — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Moisture will be very limited and LCLs will be high at least initially as a lee trough sets up over the High Plains. However, favorable shear could allow storms that form to rotate and possibly put down a tornado despite the high cloud bases.

Wednesday

Central High Plains— POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Stronger lee troughing and better moisture is expected on Wednesday as CAPE jumps into moderate to high territory during the afternoon and early evening, increasing the potential for tornadoes. Weak speed shear aloft along with fairly isolated warm sector storm coverage will keep the overall potential limited.

4-7 DAY

Thursday

Oklahoma, northern Texas, southern Midwest — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Speed shear will be weak within the risk area, but enough directional shear is present in an area with moderate CAPE that a tornado or two will be possible.

Friday

Western Gulf — POTENTIAL: Medium — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Southern Texas will have moderate shear and moderate to high CAPE available for storms to rotate and possibly become tornadic. The threat will extend eastward into far southwestern Alabama, but shear and instability become less favorable the farther east you are in the risk area.

Mid-Atlantic, eastern North Carolina — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
Shear will be very weak, but the directional shear in conjunction with low to moderate CAPE may be enough for a brief tornado.

Saturday

Southern Texas — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Despite weak winds in the low levels, enough shear in the upper levels along with moderate CAPE will keep the threat for a tornado or two around in southern Texas.

Sunday

Southeastern Florida — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
The sea breeze could allow for enough rotation for a brief tornado as storms form in the afternoon, but speed shear and CAPE are expected on the low side.