Tornado Threat Forecast: May 5-11, 2014

The week will start on the quiet side until a disturbance starts to kick off storms on Wednesday. Forecast confidence is lower than normal from Friday onward, so keep that in mind when looking at the forecast. By Sunday it’s almost a shot in the dark regarding tornado chances.

1-3 Day

Monday

No tornadoes expected.

Tuesday

No tornadoes expected.

Wednesday

Central and southern Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 0-3 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Good speed shear, decent/good directional shear, low to moderate instability
Cons: Late storm initiation that could allow storms to go elevated before becoming tornadic, late arrival of upper-level energy, questionable storm intensity

4-7 Day

Thursday

Mississippi Valley, eastern Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 4-12 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Good speed shear, decent/good directional shear, low to moderate instability, good upper-level forcing
Cons: Questionable mid-level lapse rates, early convection/clouds contaminating the warm sector, some areas could have backed mid-level winds

Friday

Midwest, ArkLaTex, western Southeast — TORNADO RANGE: 3-8 — CONFIDENCE: Low
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Decent speed and directional shear, low to moderate instability
Cons: Weakening lapse rates, weakening upper-level forcing, widespread clouds/rain over the warm sector, less directional shear

Saturday

Eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas to Tennessee Valley — TORNADO RANGE: 0-3 — CONFIDENCE: Low
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Decent/good directional shear, okay/decent speed shear, low to moderate instability
Cons: Weak low-level speed shear, weak upper-level forcing, rising heights in the western areas

Sunday

Central and southern Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 0-5 — CONFIDENCE: Low
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Some hints at moderate/high instability, good wind shear and an incoming shortwave disturbance
Cons: Poor model agreement regarding timing and position of synoptic and mesoscale features