Tornado Threat Forecast: April 6-12, 2015

It’s spring and we are back with bi-weekly forecasts for the 2015 tornado season! I’ll be keeping to the same format as last year, running new 7-day forecasts every Monday and Thursday until things get quiet again. The only exception will be during our annual chasecation, which is set for late May into early June this year.

Time to throw out the first pitch…

1-3 Day

Monday

No tornadoes expected.

Tuesday

California — TORNADO RANGE: 0-1 — CONFIDENCE: High
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Good upper-level forcing, decent directional shear.
Cons: Low instability, hints of a veer-back-veer wind profile, weak mid-level speed shear.

Wednesday

Central Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 2-6 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: South-central Kansas
Pros: Strong directional shear, good speed shear, moderate to high instability, breakable cap near the triple-point.
Cons: Stronger cap down the dry line, height falls lag behind best initiation time, concern over the potential slow-down of the upper-level trough that is likely needed to kick off storms further down the dry line, clouds from showers/storms in Texas and southern Oklahoma.

4-7 Day

Thursday

Central Miss. Valley, southeastern Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 2-6 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Arkansas
Pros: Good upper-level dynamics, low to moderate instability, good speed shear.
Cons: Marginal directional shear in most spots, storms lining out along the cold front, “crapvection” (messy convective showers/storms) ahead of the main line of storms.

Friday

No tornadoes expected.

Saturday

Southern Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 0-2 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Strong directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Somewhat weak speed shear, height rises, lack of upper-level forcing, capping issues.

Sunday

Southern and Central Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 1-4 — CONFIDENCE: Low
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Good directional shear, decent/good speed shear low to moderate instability, decent/good upper-level forcing.
Cons: Negative/cut-off upper-level trough leading to veer-back-veer wind profiles, crapvection and cloud cover in the warm sector, potential timing issues.