Tornado Threat Forecast: April 27-May 3, 2015

Much quieter in the Southeast compared to this day four years ago, which was the Super Outbreak of 2011. “Quiet” will be the theme for most of the next seven days, with an upper-level ridge shutting down storm activity over the central U.S. while a trough in the Great Lakes and Northeast keeps cool, stable air over the eastern U.S.

Also, a quick reminder that the Day 1 forecast is active from the time of the post, not for the entire day. Tornadoes that occurred before the time of the post are not included in the forecast tornado count.

1-3 Day

Monday

Eastern Texas, Louisiana — TORNADO RANGE: 2-6 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Eastern Texas
Pros: Great directional shear, good mid-to-upper level speed shear, low to moderate instability, good upper-level forcing.
Cons: Weak speed shear in the low-levels, unidirectional flow in the mid-to-upper levels, potential issues with weak lapse rates around 850mb.

Tuesday

Central and eastern Gulf of Mexico — TORNADO RANGE: 2-5 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Central Gulf Coast
Pros: Good directional shear, good mid-to-upper level speed shear, decent upper-level forcing along the central Gulf Coast.
Cons: Low instability for most, weak speed shear in the low-levels, unidirectional flow in the mid-to-upper levels, potential for slightly backing winds in the mid-levels, poor mid-to-upper level lapse rates and poor upper-level forcing in Florida.

Wednesday

Southern Georgia, southern S.C., northern Florida — TORNADO RANGE: 0-3 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Southern Georgia
Pros: Good speed shear, good low-level lapse rates, decent upper-level forcing.
Cons: Fairly poor directional shear, rain and clouds contaminating the warm sector leading to questionable instability, neutral/rising heights.

4-7 Day

Thursday

No tornadoes expected.

Friday

No tornadoes expected.

Saturday

No tornadoes expected.

Sunday

Central Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 0-3 — CONFIDENCE: Low
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Decent/good directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Poor speed shear, weak upper-level forcing, neutral/rising heights, moisture concerns.