Tornado Threat Forecast: April 30-May 6, 2015

After what is looking like a near normal tornado count for April, May will be starting off on a quiet note. The tornado hiatus is not expected to last too long, with the tornado potential picking up a bit around midweek next week.

1-3 Day

Thursday

No tornadoes expected.

Friday

No tornadoes expected. Maybe a landspout in Colorado? Flow’s weak.

Saturday

No tornadoes expected. Still an odd chance for a landspout in the central Plains despite high LCLs?

4-7 Day

Sunday

Central Plains, northwestern Midwest — TORNADO RANGE: 0-2 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good directional shear
Cons: Weak speed shear, weak upper-level forcing, high LCLs in the central Plains, storms could line out early along the cold front.

Monday

Central and southern High Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 0-3 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Good directional shear, short-wave trough providing a little upper-level forcing, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Weak speed shear, neutral/rising heights, potential issues with moisture and/or capping

Tuesday

West-central and southwestern Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 1-4 — CONFIDENCE: Low
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, good low-level shear.
Cons: Fairly weak mid-to-upper level speed shear, negative-tilt trough causing backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels.

Wednesday

Central and southern Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 3-7 — CONFIDENCE: Low
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Southern Plains
Pros: Low to moderate instability, good low-level shear, decent upper-level forcing.
Cons: Fairly weak mid-to-upper level speed shear, negative-tilt trough causing backing winds in the upper levels across the northern parts of the risk area, early-day clouds and rain contaminating the warm sector.