Tornado Threat Forecast: April 6-12, 2017

The “Good job, Mark. You waited until the pattern got quiet again to start the regular updates!” edition.

After an active period across the South, a more tranquil pattern will set up through the remainder of this week. But don’t fear! We have the return of tornado threats to the Plains and Midwest next week.

1-3 Day

Thursday

No tornadoes expected.

Friday

No tornadoes expected.

Saturday

No tornadoes expected.

4-7 Day

Sunday – East-central Plains, southwestern Midwest

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-5 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good low-level directional shear, good/excellent speed shear, low to moderate instability, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Backing winds in the mid-levels, tendency for storms to grow upscale into lines along the cold front.

Monday – Southern Plains, southern Midwest

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: Texas

Pros: Decent/good speed shear, decent/good directional shear in the southern areas, low to moderate instability in Texas.
Cons: Weak low-level speed shear in the southern areas, weak directional shear in the northern areas, low instability in the northern areas, somewhat weak upper-level forcing.

Tuesday – Texas/ArkLaTex region

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Weak speed shear, little to no upper-level forcing.

Wednesday – Central and southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 8-20 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: Southern Plains

Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, decent/good speed shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Morning and afternoon clouds and rain activity could limit instability and contaminate the warm sector, some backing in the upper-levels over the central Plains.