The “Good job, Mark. You waited until the pattern got quiet again to start the regular updates!” edition.
After an active period across the South, a more tranquil pattern will set up through the remainder of this week. But don’t fear! We have the return of tornado threats to the Plains and Midwest next week.
No tornadoes expected.
Friday
No tornadoes expected.
Saturday
No tornadoes expected.
Sunday – East-central Plains, southwestern Midwest
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-5 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good low-level directional shear, good/excellent speed shear, low to moderate instability, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Backing winds in the mid-levels, tendency for storms to grow upscale into lines along the cold front.
Monday – Southern Plains, southern Midwest
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: Texas
Pros: Decent/good speed shear, decent/good directional shear in the southern areas, low to moderate instability in Texas.
Cons: Weak low-level speed shear in the southern areas, weak directional shear in the northern areas, low instability in the northern areas, somewhat weak upper-level forcing.
Tuesday – Texas/ArkLaTex region
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Weak speed shear, little to no upper-level forcing.
Wednesday – Central and southern Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 8-20 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: Southern Plains
Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, decent/good speed shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Morning and afternoon clouds and rain activity could limit instability and contaminate the warm sector, some backing in the upper-levels over the central Plains.
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