Tornado Threat Forecast: April 10-16, 2017

While each day provides some level of tornado threat, the overall tornado potential is pretty low through this weekend. Wednesday’s tornado potential has come down quite a bit compared to the last forecast due to the weaker and less-organized look of the storm system.

1-3 Day

Monday – Southwestern Great Lakes

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good speed shear, low to moderate instability, decent/good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Poor/decent directional shear, questionable storm mode, weak low-level lapse rates.

Monday – Central Texas, ArkLaTex

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good directional shear.
Cons: Weak low-to-mid level speed shear, weak low-level lapse rates, mostly linear storm mode, little to no upper-level dynamics.

Tuesday – Southern Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-1 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Questionable storm mode, risk for lower instability, poor speed shear, little to no upper-level dynamics.

Wednesday – Central and southwestern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 4-10 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, decent/good speed shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Clouds and early-day rain could limit the instability, potential for backing winds in the upper-levels, areas of weak low-to-mid level speed shear.

4-7 Day

Thursday – Southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent directional shear.
Cons: Generally low instability, weak/decent speed shear, weak upper-level dynamics, clouds and early-day rain could limit the instability.

Friday – Central Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-3 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, decent speed shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Capping issues that will limit the storm coverage, mid-level speed shear could be better, fairly weak upper-level dynamics.

Saturday – Central Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, decent/good directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Capping issues leads to questionable storm coverage, little to no upper-level dynamics.

Sunday – Southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, good/excellent directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, little to no upper-level dynamics.