Tornado Threat Forecast: April 17-23, 2017

After a slow start to the week, a dynamic storm system could provide a more consistent tornado threat during the back half of the week. However, concerns about available instability and storm mode will likely keep the day-to-day tornado count low through the weekend.

1-3 Day

Monday – Central High Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, decent/good speed shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Low storm coverage, little to no upper-level dynamics.

Tuesday

No tornadoes expected.

Wednesday – East-central Plains, western Midwest

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good low-level directional shear, good speed shear.
Cons: Questionable storm mode and coverage, weak upper-level dynamics, unidirectional mid-to-upper level shear.

4-7 Day

Thursday

No tornadoes expected.

Friday – Southern Oklahoma, northern Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-5 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, good/excellent low-level directional shear, good speed shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level shear, questionable storm mode.

Saturday – Tennessee Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent/good directional shear, good/excellent speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, questionable storm mode.

Sunday – Carolinas, southeastern Virginia

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, poor/decent directional shear, unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, questionable storm mode.