Tornado Threat Forecast: April 20-26, 2017

Aside from Friday’s tornado potential, it will be slim pickings over the next seven days. The end of next week could start to light back up, but for now we will have to deal with a mostly quiet week.

1-3 Day

Thursday – Eastern Great Lakes

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-3 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good speed shear, decent low-level directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Poor mid-to-upper level directional shear, weak upper-level dynamics.

Friday – Southeastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, western Arkansas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Southeastern Oklahoma

Pros: Good directional shear, good/excellent speed shear, low to moderate instability, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Limited areal coverage, storms may grow more upscale quickly, questionable low-to-mid level lapse rates.

Saturday – Southern Appalachians

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, weak directional shear, questionable storm mode.

4-7 Day

Sunday – Eastern Carolinas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Weak instability, weak directional shear.

Monday

No tornadoes expected.

Tuesday

No tornadoes expected.

Wednesday – Ohio Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent speed shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Poor/decent directional shear, low instability, mostly linear storm mode.