Tornado Threat Forecast: April 11-17, 2019

Severe weather is ready to become a regular occurrence in the U.S. once again, and we’re here to cover yet another tornado season! Here’s where you can potentially find some early season twisters.

1-3 Day

Thursday – Illinois

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good dynamics, good speed shear.
Cons: Poor/decent directional shear, low CAPE, mostly linear storm mode.

Friday – Far eastern Ohio Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good speed shear.
Cons: Poor/decent directional shear, low CAPE, mostly linear storm mode.

Saturday – Deep South

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 8-20 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, good speed shear, decent/good directional shear, excellent dynamics.
Cons: Potential contamination from early day clouds and rain, potential for veer-back-veer profiles, storms may quickly grow upscale.

4-7 Day

Sunday – Southeast, Ohio Valley, western Mid-Atlantic

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-5 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good speed shear, good dynamics.
Cons: Poor/decent directional shear, low instability, potential contamination from early day clouds and rain.

Monday

No tornadoes expected.

Tuesday

No tornadoes expected.

Wednesday – Southeastern Plains, central and southern Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 8-20 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good speed shear, good dynamics.
Cons: Poor/decent directional shear.