Tornado Threat Forecast: April 16-22, 2019

A potent storm system will work across the South and into the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday through Friday, likely producing tornadoes each day. Afterwards, a quieter period is in store as new disturbances come in looking weaker and less punchy.

1-3 Day

Tuesday

No tornadoes expected.

Wednesday – Southern Plains, central and southern Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 7-18 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good dynamics, low to moderate instability, good speed shear, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Questionable storm mode, potential backing winds in the mid-levels, storms may not be more elevated in the northern parts of the risk area.

Thursday – Southern Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southeast

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 6-14 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Southern Mississippi Valley

Pros: Good dynamics, good/excellent speed shear, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Mostly low instability, poor/decent mid-to-upper level directional shear, questionable storm mode.

4-7 Day

Friday – Mid-Atlantic, Southeast

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-7 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good dynamics, good/excellent speed shear, good dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, poor/decent directional shear, questionable storm mode.

Saturday

No tornadoes expected.

Sunday – Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good directional shear, good low-level speed shear.
Cons: Poor mid-to-upper speed shear, weak dynamics.

Monday – Central Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent speed shear.
Cons: Poor/decent directional shear, low instability, weak dynamics.