These maps break down November tornadoes based on where they begin.
There’s a slight uptick in overall tornadoes moving from October to November, though numbers remain meager compared to the heart of the season in spring and early summer.
The month is often hit-or-miss outside some normal activity nearer the Gulf. However, some of the second season attributes can be seen on the grid map above.
These maps break down October tornadoes based on where they begin.
Often considered part of the “second season” which sometimes occurs in fall, tornado activity is significantly down by October when compared to the yearly peak in spring and early summer.
By October, tornado territory is dwindling with the encroachment south of colder and drier air, plus tropical season peak is behind us.
Outside larger outbreaks that occur at random, a trend of fairly few tornadoes generally closer to the Gulf of Mexico becomes the norm around this time of year. U.S. tornadoes never really fully disappear, they just wane significantly.
First, let’s call Into the Storm what it is: A low-budget, CGI heavy, summer disaster flick meant to draw those seeking a relatively cheap thrill.
On that basis, the movie delivers.
If you’re a tornado aficionado, you might be left wanting to see more action, less side story, and perhaps a little more in the way of realism.
In essence, your ultimate view really depends on what you’re in the theater for and perhaps additionally what kind of weather nerd you might be.
My first reaction upon hearing about the premiere of a new weather-based talk show on The Weather Channel (TWC) was a mix of shock, excitement and skepticism.
The long-standing trend of TWC to shoehorn content with little to no weather focus into their TV programming and their web site has been really off-putting for me, and to have a show like this seemingly pop up out of nowhere was a shock to the system.
For those of you who are familiar with the online show WeatherBrains, Weather Geeks can mostly be boiled down to a nationally-televised version of that.
Could this new show be a sort of redemption for TWC in the eyes of weather enthusiasts like myself who have grown leery towards what TWC has become in recent years? In some ways, that’s how it was seemingly advertised: “A show produced by Meteorologists, for Weather Geeks.” That is the tagline on their Twitter account. Welly, welly, well! We shall see about that.
Not gonna lie, I'm legit excited to see how @WXGeeksTWC turns out, especially with Chuck Doswell as the first guest.
— Mark Ellinwood (@markellinwood) July 15, 2014
On June 16, 2014 a family of tornadoes dropped from a parent supercell moving over northeast Nebraska. It was only the beginning of a multi-day tornadic event in the region. But the supercell near Pilger, NE was the most dramatic of the event and arguably the supercell of the tornado season.
First let’s talk about the large scale meteorological setup. On the 16th, an upper level storm system moving in from the pacific ocean fueled an area of lower pressure on the east side of the Rocky mountains. These two systems, combined with their slow movement, made for a mix of atmospheric ingredients that was favorable for supercells and tornadoes for multiple days. These ingredients, namely instability and wind shear we’re known well in advance and were highlighted by National Weather Service forecast offices, the Storm Prediction Center and our tornado threat forecast.
On Monday morning the Storm Prediction Center, known as the SPC, issued their morning outlook for the day ahead. They mentioned a moderate risk for the Eastern Nebraska area saying that
“The severe threat ultimately may be greatest from Northern Kansas into Central/Eastern Nebraska…” and “Given the potent combination of buoyancy and shear in this region…significant hail and tornadoes could occur.”
What 2014 lacked in tornadoes during our trip, it made up with good/excellent storm structure. We were on legitimate supercells every chase day but one and picked good storms, but something was missing each day that kept the tornado count virtually nil.
With the U.S. moving into the quieter summer pattern, we will no longer be doing regular updates of the Tornado Threat Forecast or the Tornado Digest this year. We may do special updates in the off-season when a strong disturbance develops.
Astronomical summer began in a way summer tends to trend, quieter than times prior when it comes to tornado activity.
Tornadoes were reported across the country on all but one day of the week last week. But, in general, everything was minor and geographically isolated.
While events ongoing early this week remind us that decent tornado activity can continue well into the summer, we’ve certainly moved out of usual peak, and the overall outlook calls for less and less shear to support significant tornado events going forward in the times ahead.
Today has the best chance for tornadoes through the next seven days, with risks waning significantly after tomorrow as we start to see a more typical summertime pattern of hit-or-miss setups.
“Early because I’m going into work soon and won’t be out until the evening” edition. Doing the abridged version today due to time constraints.
East-central Plains, Midwest — TORNADO RANGE: 3-8 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Western Midwest
Mid-Atlantic, southern Midwest, Tennessee Valley, Oklahoma — TORNADO RANGE: 2-6 — CONFIDENCE: Normal Continue reading »
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Continue reading »
Early action looks to be over the north-central U.S., but we’ll at least start on a fairly quiet note today and tomorrow. Better shear in place for this weekend, but we’ll have to see how many supercells can get cranking within the more favorable setup.
REMINDER: Starting next week, I will have a new job and a new schedule. I’ll try to get the forecasts out in the mornings Monday and Thursday next week, then I will have to see what my schedule looks like after that for future updates.
Northwestern Plains, central High Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 1-4 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Northern High Plains
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good/strong directional shear, decent speed shear
Cons: High LCLs, storm coverage concerns in the southern areas, possible slight backing in the upper-levels across the southern areas
Northern and central Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 0-2 — CONFIDENCE: Normal Continue reading »
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, decent/good speed shear, decent directional shear in the low-levels, some upper-level forcing
Cons: Capping concerns, notably-backed winds in the upper-levels across most of the risk area
Continue reading »