Tornado Threat Forecast: April 18-24, 2019

Today and Friday will likely be the most active out of the next seven days as a potent storm system rolls across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The pattern trends quieter into the weekend before picking back up in the central U.S. next week.

1-3 Day

Thursday – Southeast

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 10-25 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent dynamics, good/excellent speed shear, decent/good low-level directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, saturated atmosphere, questionable storm mode.

Friday – Eastern Southeast, Mid-Atlantic

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 6-14 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent/good dynamics, good/excellent speed shear, decent/good low-level directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, potential for backing mid-level winds, saturated atmosphere, questionable storm mode.

Saturday

No tornadoes expected.

4-7 Day

Sunday

No tornadoes expected.

Monday – Kansas, Oklahoma, northern Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 4-10 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good speed shear, good low-level directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Potential for backing winds in the mid-levels, questionable storm mode.

Tuesday – Southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 4-10 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent/good speed shear, decent/good directional shear, low to moderate instability, decent/good dynamics.
Cons: Somewhat weak mid-level winds, uncertainty with storm area and coverage.

Wednesday – Southern Plains, southern Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good speed shear, decent dynamics.
Cons: Weak/decent directional shear, potential weakness in the mid-level winds, very uncertain storm mode, area, and coverage.

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