Tornado Threat Forecast: April 29-May 5, 2013

Help me MJO Kenobi, you’re my only hope. Tis desperate times for chasers as we head into the month of May, with spring thus far leaving a bitter taste in our mouths.

1-3 DAY

Monday

Southern Texas — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
A tornado has already occurred in this area as storms continue to grow in a moderate CAPE/low shear environment. Ongoing and new storms could rotate, with another tornado or two possible.

Iowa, northern Illinois — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: High
Storms are expected to form in an environment that has moderate CAPE and good directional shear, which could lead to a tornadic storm or two.

Tuesday

Central Plains, northern Midwest — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Storms will fire along and behind a cold front, with low to moderate CAPE in place ahead of the front, though directional shear will be lacking. The fairly unidirectional wind profile and questionable coverage of storms in the warm sector will keep the tornado threat limited.

Southern Louisiana — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
A weak upper-level vort. max will work eastward along the Gulf Coast and will tap into an area of low CAPE to allow for rotating storms and possibly a tornado.

Wednesday

Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Weak shear will keep the tornado potential limited despite the moderate to high instability as most of the precipitation near an advancing cold front remains behind the front.

4-7 DAY

Thursday

No tornadic activity expected.

Friday

Central Gulf Coast — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
Upper-level forcing will start to catch up to a slowing cold front as the low cuts-off and stalls over the Midwest. This will provide enough shear in an area with low instability to produce a tornadic storm or two.

Southeastern Midwest — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
An area of low CAPE ahead of the upper-level low will have sufficient shear for rotating storms and possibly a tornado.

Saturday

Central Gulf Coast — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
An area that is already low in shear could have even weaker on Saturday compared to the setup on Friday, but nonetheless there is enough directional shear in conjunction with low instability that a tornado will be possible.

Sunday

No tornadic activity expected, though with this cut-off low bouncing around with every run who knows what’s going to happen at this range.